Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, -1.88%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
SBUX (11/24/13, +0.14%)

Last week the major U.S. indexes ended mixed. The NASDAQ jumped 1.71%, the DJIA added 0.13%, the S&P 500 inched up 0.06%, and the NYSE Composite faded 0.27%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”. The NASDAQ shed distribution, the S&P 500 picked up distribution, and the overall market distribution levels remain elevated. The economic news highlights for the upcoming week will be the second look at Q3 GDP on Thursday and November’s employment situation report on Friday. The ongoing rally has been treading water recently, searching for definitive direction, and could quickly make a significant move in either direction. Pay attention and be prepared for anything as normal trading resumes.

This week QIHU is not near a proper buy point.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

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Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, +4.24%)
SBUX (11/24/13, +0.00%)

Additions:
SBUX (11/24/13, +0.00%)

Subtractions:
None

Last week the major U.S. indexes barely nudged ahead. The DJIA added 0.65%, the S&P 500 gained 0.36%, the NYSE Composite crept up 0.16%, and the NASDAQ inched forward 0.14%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”. There was no new distribution added last week but the overall market distribution levels remain elevated. In the holiday shortened week ahead, expect to see low volume and volatility. Make sure you have an exit strategy in place in case the markets turn south when normal trading activity resumes. Continue to ride your winners and, although high quality stocks are mostly extended, keep looking for secondary entry points. Enjoy your Thanksgiving and be sure and count your blessings.

This week neither of the watch list stocks are near a proper buy point.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, +5.78%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
None

Last week all the major U.S. indexes moved higher. The NASDAQ jumped 1.70%, the NYSE Composite climbed 1.57%, the S&P 500 added 1.56%, and the DJIA gained 1.27%. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 set a new record high on good volume and the IBD outlook improved to “uptrend resumes”. The S&P 500 also picked up another distribution day on Tuesday and the overall market distribution levels remain elevated. The market continues its meandering melt up with multiple indexes notching record highs. Don’t try to second guess this slow motion rally, continue to take the gains being given, although be prepared to change direction quickly if the already substantial distribution gets any worse. Stay disciplined and don’t chase extended charts, only consider buying high quality stocks in proper buy ranges.

This week QIHU is not near a proper buy point.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, -4.54%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
None

Last week the major U.S. indexes ended mixed. The DJIA tacked on 0.94%, the S&P 500 gained 0.51%, the NYSE Composite added 0.14%, and the NASDAQ faded 0.07%. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 both racked up additional distribution and after Wednesday’s significant downdraft on higher volume, the IBD outlook slipped to “uptrend under pressure”. Down days are coming on higher volume and up days are coming on lower volume, exactly the opposite of what Bulls want to see. For now, it’s best to avoid making new purchases and start lightening up on your long exposure. Consider booking some profits, even small ones. Above all, don’t let any gains turn into losses and don’t take a loss of more than 7-8% on any position.

This week QIHU is not near a proper buy point.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, +4.07%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
GNRC (10/27/13, -5.57%)

Last week the major U.S. indexes finished narrowly mixed. The DJIA added 0.29%, the S&P 500 inched up 0.11%, the NYSE Composite faded 0.36%, and the NASDAQ gave up 0.54%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 added more distribution days and, although the distribution is not yet significant, the current uptrend, so far, lacks any discernible institutional buying conviction. This week the economic news highlights will be the first look at Q3 GDP on Thursday and the October employment situation report on Friday. Most leading stocks are still extended from proper buy points. Keep your watch lists updated and continue searching for new breakouts and scanning for secondary buy points. If the uptrend isn’t giving you anything to buy at the moment, be patient and wait for solid opportunities to present themselves. Don’t violate your investing discipline just for the sake of “getting in” the market.

This week QIHU is not near a proper buy point.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

GNRC (10/27/13, +0.00%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +2.00%)

Additions:
GNRC (10/27/13, +0.00%)

Subtractions:
None

Last week all the major U.S. indexes stumbled higher. The DJIA gained 1.11%, the S&P 500 tacked on 0.88%, the NASDAQ added 0.74%, and the NYSE Composite inched up 0.69%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”, although the NASDAQ picked up two distribution days. This week investors will continue to digest what has, so far, been a moderately positive earnings season. The primary, scheduled economic news will the FOMC announcement on Wednesday. Don’t chase extended stocks, keep watching for secondary buy points and new breakouts of top quality stocks out of proper bases.

This week neither of the watch list stocks are near proper buy points.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, +13.95%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
GNRC (9/22/13, -5.55%)

Last week all the major U.S. indexes gained ground. The NASDAQ vaulted 3.23%, the S&P 500 jumped 2.42%, the NYSE Composite rose 2.28%, and the DJIA added 1.07%. IBD upgraded their outlook to “confirmed uptrend” after Wednesday’s legitimate follow through day on the S&P 500. This call can also be justified as the NASDAQ moved to a new high. The good news is, with the political clown parade off the stage for the time being, it’s a green light to start buying leading stocks in proper buy ranges. The bad news is that most leading stocks are now well extended from proper buy ranges. Stay disciplined and don’t chase, look for secondary buy points to ease into a new position and keep scanning for new breakouts. Also, we’re into another earnings season, so resist the temptation to buy a stock right before it reports. Sure, there’s the potential for a price spike on a good report, but you can also get clobbered on poor earnings, sales, or guidance. It’s a better strategy to let the earnings news shake out and then play the stock price where it lies after the report.

This week QIHU, trading at $94.67, is still in secondary buy range up to $98.94 after successfully testing the ten week line, otherwise it’s 166% extended from a 2nd stage cup base, so be careful here.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, -0.19%)
GNRC (9/22/13, -6.12%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
None

Last week the major U.S. indexes once again closed mixed. The Dow rose 1.1%, the NYSE gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 added 0.8%, and the NASDAQ gave up 0.4%. After Tuesday’s broad selloff on volume, IBD correctly downgraded their outlook to “market in correction”. Then, inexplicably, two days later, after solid gains on lower volume, IBD reinstated the “uptrend under pressure” outlook and brought back the previous distribution count with two distribution days added to the NASDAQ, the only explanation given was “worries that prompted the downgrade in the market outlook diminished”. This call is extremely frustrating and disappointing. IBD is supposed to be a rules based market timing system and here they seem to be just making it up as they go along. Thursday’s action was not a follow through day, as defined by IBD, as it did not come on higher volume and it did not come on day four or later of a rally attempt. Even if it could be considered a follow through day, that would move the outlook to “confirmed uptrend”, not back to “uptrend under pressure”. IBD really needs to provide a plausible, rules based explanation for this call, retract the call, or they’re undermining their credibility. In any case, the IBD outlook call is what it is and the fact remains that the market isn’t in a good place. Personally, I’m treating the market as if it’s still in correction and making investment decisions accordingly. Play defense, raise cash and move to the sidelines, wait for the Shutdown Theater/Debt Ceiling Circus to close, and look for a legitimate follow through day that will signal the start of a true uptrend.

This week neither of the watch list stocks are at or near proper buy points.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

GNRC (9/22/13, -3.56%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +3.72%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
MA (9/8/13, +5.77%)

Last week the major U.S. indexes ended mixed. The NASDAQ rose 0.7%, the NYSE composite and S&P 500 each faded 0.1%, and the Dow gave up 1.2%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 was saddled with a sixth distribution day, a 0.2%+ drop on higher volume than the previous day, and the IBD outlook was degraded to “uptrend under pressure”. With the President and Treasury Secretary both going on TV to irresponsibly bad mouth the full faith and credit of the United States and talk up the ludicrous possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its debt, it’s not hard to see why the markets are skittish and investor enthusiasm is lacking, almost like this Administration wants to see a market pullback in order to inflict maximum financial pain on the public, for partisan political purposes, during the ongoing budget impasse. Until the final curtain drops on this disgusting Shutdown Theater, it’s probably best to play defense, keep a tight leash on your portfolio, consider raising cash, don’t let profits turn into losses, don’t take a loss of more than 7-8% on any position, avoid new purchases, and otherwise keep your powder dry on the sidelines.

This week neither of the watch list stocks are at or near proper buy points.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

GNRC (9/22/13, -1.33%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +1.02%)
MA (9/8/13, +7.10%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
BIIB (6/30/13, +13.76%)
PKG (9/15/13, +5.63%)

Last week the major U.S. indexes finished mixed. The NASDAQ added 0.2%, the NYSE composite gave up 0.9%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Dow dropped 1.2%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”. Distribution eased on the NASDAQ but the S&P 500 added two distribution days and is now approaching an uncomfortable level. This week all investor eyes will be fixated on the ongoing Washington D.C. fiscal train wreck and whether there will be a partial shutdown of the U.S. Government, which now seems likely. Needless to say, a government shutdown will have a negative impact on the equities market. And even if the politician children manage to stumble their way through this unnecessary, politically manufactured crisis, they’ll be almost immediately faced with yet another politically manufactured standoff that could potentially have a much larger negative impact on markets, the brawl over raising the U.S. debt ceiling. Even though the market is in an uptrend, you’d be foolish not to adopt a more defensive posture for the near term. Keep a tight leash on your portfolio and consider taking some profits and reducing your long exposure until all the Beltway melodrama plays out.

This week two of the watch list stocks are near proper buy points. GNRC, trading at $43.02, is just below a $43.27 buy point off of a late 4th stage double bottom base. MA, trading at $681.85, is still within 5% of a $657.08 buy point off of a late 4th stage flat base.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

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