Weekly Watch List

QIHU (9/8/13, -0.19%)
GNRC (9/22/13, -6.12%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
None

Last week the major U.S. indexes once again closed mixed. The Dow rose 1.1%, the NYSE gained 0.9%, the S&P 500 added 0.8%, and the NASDAQ gave up 0.4%. After Tuesday’s broad selloff on volume, IBD correctly downgraded their outlook to “market in correction”. Then, inexplicably, two days later, after solid gains on lower volume, IBD reinstated the “uptrend under pressure” outlook and brought back the previous distribution count with two distribution days added to the NASDAQ, the only explanation given was “worries that prompted the downgrade in the market outlook diminished”. This call is extremely frustrating and disappointing. IBD is supposed to be a rules based market timing system and here they seem to be just making it up as they go along. Thursday’s action was not a follow through day, as defined by IBD, as it did not come on higher volume and it did not come on day four or later of a rally attempt. Even if it could be considered a follow through day, that would move the outlook to “confirmed uptrend”, not back to “uptrend under pressure”. IBD really needs to provide a plausible, rules based explanation for this call, retract the call, or they’re undermining their credibility. In any case, the IBD outlook call is what it is and the fact remains that the market isn’t in a good place. Personally, I’m treating the market as if it’s still in correction and making investment decisions accordingly. Play defense, raise cash and move to the sidelines, wait for the Shutdown Theater/Debt Ceiling Circus to close, and look for a legitimate follow through day that will signal the start of a true uptrend.

This week neither of the watch list stocks are at or near proper buy points.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

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Weekly Watch List

GNRC (9/22/13, -3.56%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +3.72%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
MA (9/8/13, +5.77%)

Last week the major U.S. indexes ended mixed. The NASDAQ rose 0.7%, the NYSE composite and S&P 500 each faded 0.1%, and the Dow gave up 1.2%. On Thursday, the S&P 500 was saddled with a sixth distribution day, a 0.2%+ drop on higher volume than the previous day, and the IBD outlook was degraded to “uptrend under pressure”. With the President and Treasury Secretary both going on TV to irresponsibly bad mouth the full faith and credit of the United States and talk up the ludicrous possibility of the U.S. defaulting on its debt, it’s not hard to see why the markets are skittish and investor enthusiasm is lacking, almost like this Administration wants to see a market pullback in order to inflict maximum financial pain on the public, for partisan political purposes, during the ongoing budget impasse. Until the final curtain drops on this disgusting Shutdown Theater, it’s probably best to play defense, keep a tight leash on your portfolio, consider raising cash, don’t let profits turn into losses, don’t take a loss of more than 7-8% on any position, avoid new purchases, and otherwise keep your powder dry on the sidelines.

This week neither of the watch list stocks are at or near proper buy points.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

GNRC (9/22/13, -1.33%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +1.02%)
MA (9/8/13, +7.10%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
BIIB (6/30/13, +13.76%)
PKG (9/15/13, +5.63%)

Last week the major U.S. indexes finished mixed. The NASDAQ added 0.2%, the NYSE composite gave up 0.9%, the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Dow dropped 1.2%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”. Distribution eased on the NASDAQ but the S&P 500 added two distribution days and is now approaching an uncomfortable level. This week all investor eyes will be fixated on the ongoing Washington D.C. fiscal train wreck and whether there will be a partial shutdown of the U.S. Government, which now seems likely. Needless to say, a government shutdown will have a negative impact on the equities market. And even if the politician children manage to stumble their way through this unnecessary, politically manufactured crisis, they’ll be almost immediately faced with yet another politically manufactured standoff that could potentially have a much larger negative impact on markets, the brawl over raising the U.S. debt ceiling. Even though the market is in an uptrend, you’d be foolish not to adopt a more defensive posture for the near term. Keep a tight leash on your portfolio and consider taking some profits and reducing your long exposure until all the Beltway melodrama plays out.

This week two of the watch list stocks are near proper buy points. GNRC, trading at $43.02, is just below a $43.27 buy point off of a late 4th stage double bottom base. MA, trading at $681.85, is still within 5% of a $657.08 buy point off of a late 4th stage flat base.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

GNRC (9/22/13, +0.00%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +5.96%)
BIIB (6/30/13, +15.30%)
PKG (9/15/13, +8.21%)
MA (9/8/13, +7.72%)

Additions:
GNRC (9/22/13, +0.00%)

Subtractions:
EVR (6/23/13, +31.83%)
OCN (3/17/13, +45.06%)
PRAA (8/25/13, +6.56%)

Last week all the major U.S. indexes continued to move higher. The NASDAQ and NYSE composite each climbed 1.4%, the S&P 500 gained 1.3%, and the Dow added 0.5%. The IBD outlook remains at “confirmed uptrend”. With the latest FOMC meeting now in the rear view mirror, investors’ attention will turn to the growing spectacle that is the political brawl over the ongoing financing of the U.S. Government. As predicted, the partisan demagoguery is increasing in both volume and nastiness. Expect increased market volatility as the absurd, exaggerated, and childish rhetoric builds to a crescendo and slams into the September 30th deadline. The market will likely make a big move at that point, the direction depending on whether they pry a fiscal deal or a government shutdown from the wreckage. Have a plan for either outcome and be prepared to execute it quickly. That said, for now, the market is in an uptrend with reasonable distribution levels, continue to play the hand dealt until the deck gets reshuffled.

This week two of the watch list stocks are near proper buy points. GNRC, trading at $43.60, broke out of a late 4th stage double bottom base on good volume and is just above a $43.27 buy point. MA, trading at $685.74, is still within 5% of a $657.08 buy point off of a late 4th stage flat base.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

OCN (3/17/13, +40.19%)
EVR (6/23/13, +32.28%)
PRAA (8/25/13, +5.45%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +5.75%)
BIIB (6/30/13, +9.07%)
MA (9/8/13, +4.68%)
PKG (9/15/13, +0.00%)

Additions:
PKG (9/15/13, +0.00%)

Subtractions:
None

Last week all the major U.S. indexes gained ground. The Dow vaulted 3.0%, the NYSE composite jumped 2.1%, the S&P 500 climbed 2.0%, and the NASDAQ gained 1.7%. On Monday, the NASDAQ hit a new multi-year high and IBD changed the outlook to “market resumes uptrend”. Along with the resumed uptrend came the associated, elevated distribution count however, as the week progressed, old distribution days fell by the wayside and the distribution levels are now reasonable. Although Syria seems to be off the table for now and “The Taper” is theoretically baked in, the negotiations leading up to the end of the month deadline for an agreement to fund the U.S. Government could get ugly and provide a potential catalyst for downward market pressure. That said, the market is in an uptrend and it’s once again time to get busy on the long side. Just proceed with appropriate caution until the politicians are done making the fiscal deal sausage.

This week three of the watch list stocks are near proper buy points. BIIB, trading at $234.71, broke out of a 2nd stage cup with handle base on less than ideal volume and has settled back to just below a $234.84 buy point. MA, trading at $666.41, broke out of a very late 4th stage flat base and is still within 5% of a $657.08 buy point. PKG, trading at $54.55, has formed a late 3rd stage flat base on base pattern with a potential buy point of $55.89.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

OCN (3/17/13, +38.16%)
EVR (6/23/13, +28.68%)
PRAA (8/25/13, +2.24%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +0.00%)
BIIB (6/30/13, +4.64%)
MA (9/8/13, +0.00%)

Additions:
MA (9/8/13, +0.00%)
QIHU (9/8/13, +0.00%)

Subtractions:
PKG (9/25/13, -2.07%)

Last week all the major U.S. indexes turned higher. The NASDAQ jumped 2.0%, the NYSE composite climbed 1.8%, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, and the Dow added 0.8%. The IBD outlook remains at “market in correction”. Even though the overall market action was constructive last week, resist the temptation to try and anticipate an uptrend and get in early. Stay disciplined and demand to see a legitimate follow through day, “when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and in greater volume”, before wading back in on the long side. There’s little in the way of scheduled, significant economic news in the coming week and there’s plenty of potential downside catalysts looming on the near term horizon, including Syria and the necessity of reaching a fiscal deal for funding the Government as the U.S. Congress comes back in session. Until these major uncertainties are resolved and off the table, it’s best to just watch from the sidelines. Continue to be patient, play defense, and keep your watch lists updated.

With the market in correction, none of the watch list stocks can be considered as buy candidates.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

The following stocks currently exhibit potential technical characteristics consistent with historically successful shorting opportunities, emphasis on POTENTIAL:

MRC
MYGN
TDC

INCORRECTLY SHORTING STOCKS CAN LEAD TO UNLIMITED LOSSES. Proceed at your own risk.

/How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short by William J. O’Neil

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!

Weekly Watch List

OCN (3/17/13, +27.89%)
EVR (6/23/13, +17.22%)
PRAA (9/25/13, -4.35%)
PKG (9/25/13, -2.82%)
BIIB (6/30/13, -1.01%)

Additions:
None

Subtractions:
None

Last week all the major U.S. indexes lost ground. The Dow slid 1.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, the NASDAQ fell 1.9%, and the NYSE composite tanked 2.2%. The IBD outlook remains at “market in correction”. The highlight of the upcoming, holiday shortened week will be the August employment situation report on Friday but, good or bad, can this economic news cut through the suffocating overhang of domestic intragovernmental squabbling and geopolitical events? Along with the looming U.S. Government fiscal showdown, we can now add an incoherent and unpredictable U.S. foreign policy to the mix of investor worries. Until this uncertainty is cleared off the table, the only safe place to be is watching from the sidelines. If you must pick a bias, the potential near term market catalysts stack up decidedly to the downside. That said, the best strategy for now is to play defense, duck and cover.

With the market in correction, none of the watch list stocks can be considered as buy candidates.

/as usual, your mileage may vary, always do your own homework

The following stocks currently exhibit potential technical characteristics consistent with historically successful shorting opportunities, emphasis on POTENTIAL:

MRC
NUAN
RVBD
TEX

INCORRECTLY SHORTING STOCKS CAN LEAD TO UNLIMITED LOSSES. Proceed at your own risk.

/How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short by William J. O’Neil

Making money off this Watch List? Feel free to tip the dealer!