The State Of The Union Is Not Strong

The U.S. economic forecast looks grim and we’re definitely expecting more rain.

UPDATE: CBO Estimates 2010 Deficit At $1.34 Tln

A new projection from the Congressional Budget Office forecast the federal government’s budget deficit for fiscal 2010 would total $1.34 trillion, improving to just over $1 trillion in fiscal 2011, which begins on Oct. 1.

If the CBO’s figures are reached, the deficit in the current fiscal year would be equal to 9.1% of U.S. gross domestic product, compared with fiscal 2009’s mark of 9.9%.

The latest figures from the nonpartisan agency portray a dreary picture of the U.S. economy, predicting U.S gross domestic product would only grow by 2% between the fourth quarter of 2010 and the same period next year.

It said the unemployment rate would not fall back to the long-term average of 5% until the end of 2014.

The CBO said since mid-2009, the recovery in the U.S. economy had been “anemic” compared with the periods following earlier recessions.

The projections involve several assumptions that likely make them optimistic. They assume the Bush-era tax cuts expire at the end of 2010, for example, and also that Congress makes no further annual adjustments to prevent the alternative minimum tax from hitting middle-class taxpayers.

The projections also don’t include any further government stimulus efforts to accelerate the lagging economy.

Read the report:

The Budget and Economic Outlook:
An Update

See also:
Keeping tax cuts beneficial in short term, harmful over long term, CBO says
Stimulus and tax cuts now, smaller economy later, CBO report says
Analysts: CBO GDP Forecast A Fantasy
Budget analysts: Near-record 2010 deficit of $1.3T
UPDATE 1-U.S. 2010 budget deficit at $1.342 trln – source
$1.3-trillion U.S. budget deficit expected
Projected US budget deficits threaten to curtail growth: CBO
Gloom weighs on fragile US recovery

The economy’s in shambles and getting worse by the day, so what does Congress and Obama do? Why naturally they all go on vacation for the rest of the month! Crisis, what crisis?

/if these so called people’s representatives don’t get deadly serious about making the hard and unpopular choices that are necessary to get us out of this massive deficit mess, we’ll soon be past the debt with interest tipping point and unable to avoid total economic collapse no matter what anyone does

Friday Night Bad News Dump

Obama was hoping you wouldn’t notice the new record deficit he set. It’s more than three times as large as the deficit was when Bush left office.

White House predicts record $1.47 trillion deficit this year, 9 percent unemployment next year

New estimates from the White House on Friday predict the budget deficit will reach a record $1.47 trillion this year. The government is borrowing 41 cents of every dollar it spends.

That’s actually a little better than the administration predicted in February.

The new estimates paint a grim unemployment picture as the economy experiences a relatively jobless recovery. The unemployment rate, presently averaging 9.5 percent, would average 9 percent next year under the new estimates.

The Office of Management and Budget report has ominous news for President Barack Obama should he seek re-election in 2012 — a still-high unemployment rate of 8.1 percent. That would be well above normal, which is closer to a rate of 5.5 percent to 6 percent. Private economists don’t think the unemployment rate will drop to those levels until well into this decade.

“The U.S. economy still faces strong headwinds,” the OMB report said. They include tight credit markets, a high inventory of unsold housing and retrenchment by state governments bound by balanced budget mandates. The European debt crisis has also had an impact.

See also:
Mid-Session Review
Budget of the U.S. Government

Federal budget deficit to exceed $1.4 trillion in 2010 and 2011
Forecast for 2011 Deficit Is Raised to $1.4 Trillion
Obama Budget Office Forecasts $1.47 Trillion Deficit This Year
Obama’s budget deficit heading further up
US deficit heads toward record $1.47 trillion
Federal deficit expected to reach record high
OMB: Economic pain will linger
US predicts record budget deficit
U.S. economy faces strong headwinds: White House
U.S. Trims ’10 Deficit Forecast as Economy Faces Headwinds
Republicans pounce on new OMB deficit predictions
Budget 2011: Past Deficits vs. Obama’s Deficits in Pictures

And remember, these record deficit projections are based on rosy White House economic assumptions.

Real GDP is expected to rise by 3.1 percent during the four quarters of 2010 and to increase 4.0 percent in 2011. The growth rate is projected to rise to 4.3 percent in 2012 and 4.2 percent in 2013 as the economy returns closer to its potential output level. Beyond 2013, real GDP growth is projected to moderate, declining gradually to 2.5 percent per year in 2018-2020.

If the U.S. economy falls short of these GDP projections, the now record deficits will become even worse. And you don’t even want to think about what happens if interest rates rise significantly and it costs the U.S. Government even more to borrow these incredibly humongous amounts of money.

/there’s no way that Obama can legitimately blame Bush for this budget mess anymore, although that won’t stop him from trying to revise history